Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
